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1.
GCC Hydrocarbon Economies and COVID: Old Trends, New Realities ; : 1-316, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-20238144

ABSTRACT

The book considers the impact of COVID-19 on the GCC member states through the prism of challenges faced by their hydrocarbon sector. Yet, the publication's discourse is not solely focused on the problems experienced by the oil and gas industries of the GCC member states after the beginning of the COVID pandemic. Instead, the contributors will analyze how these challenges and subsequent response to them affected other aspects of the GCC socio-economic and political development, from direct impact of the COVID on the energy sector of the GCC to socio-economic consequences of the oil market crisis for the region and its potential fallouts for the international relations of the Gulf. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023, corrected publication 2023.

2.
Energy Reports ; 9:5592-5611, 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2319080

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the relationship between human health and energy technologies, with a focus on how energy technology needs to adapt to new health challenges. The authors examine how a clean, affordable, and reliable energy infrastructure is critical for mitigating the impact of future pandemics. They also look at how increasing the proportion of solar and wind energy can create a near-zero emission energy system that is independent of fuel supply and its associated environmental problems. However, to ensure system resilience, significant investments in energy storage and smart control systems are necessary. For instance, the pandemic led to around 5% increase in US residential sector electricity consumption share in 2020 compared to 2019 due to stay-at-home orders, which could impact grid reliability and resiliency. This work also highlights the importance of designing energy-efficient and low-cost cooling and heating technologies for residential buildings to protect vulnerable populations from the health consequences of rising temperatures due to climate change. Additionally, the growing number of refugees worldwide and the need for efficient portable power sources in refugee camps are also addressed. The authors demonstrate how pandemics like COVID-19 can have far-reaching effects on energy technologies, from household energy use to large energy companies, and result in energy insecurity and decreased quality of life for many.

3.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change ; 192, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2303475

ABSTRACT

With the recent Russian-Ukraine conflict, the frequency and intensity of disruptive shocks on major supply chains have risen, causing increasing food and energy security concerns for regulators. That is, the combination of newly available sophisticated deep learning tools with real-time series data may represent a fruitful policy direction because machines can identify patterns without being pre-conditioned calibration thanks to experimental data training. This paper employs Deep Learning (DL) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithms and aimed predicts GDP responses to supply chain disruptions, energy prices, economic policy uncertainty, and google trend in the US. Sampled data from 2008 to 2022 are monthly wrangled and embed different recession episodes connected to the subprime crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and the current economic recession in the US. Both DL and ANN outputs empirically (and unanimously) demonstrated how sensitive monthly GDP variations are to dynamic changes in supply chain performances. Findings identify the substantial role of google trends in delivering a consistent fit to predicted GDP values, which has implications While a comparative discussion over the larger forecasting performance of DL compared to ANN experiments is offered, implications for global policy, decision-makers and firm managers are finally provided. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.

4.
Sustainability ; 15(8):6879, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2300167

ABSTRACT

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many countries see coal as the easiest solution to their energy sector challenges, despite the consequences for climate goals. Several countries of the European Union started to re-evaluate their coal policies vis-à-vis the current energy crisis and, although such a change is expected to be short-term in nature, it nevertheless has negative consequences for the Union's 2050 climate goal. However, most of the EU countries did not revise their phase-out goals. This paper examines Slovakia as a country that embarked on a coal phase-out trajectory only a few years before the pandemic broke out and stayed firmly on this path despite benefits stemming from the continued use of domestic coal. Domestic coal used to be considered a safeguard of energy security in Slovakia, especially after the 2009 gas crisis. However, a decision was made in 2018 to phase out coal by 2023, and this has not changed despite increased focus on domestic energy sources as energy security guarantors during the current energy crisis. This paper explains the decision in favour of a coal phase-out and its support vis-à-vis the energy crisis using the concept of ‘financial Europeanisation', which stresses the importance of EU funds for the development of the domestic policies of EU member states. While the expected funds serve as a catalyst for the coal phase-out needed to reach climate goals, short-term advantages of revising a coal phase-out were outweighed by long-term benefits provided by EU funds.

5.
Energy ; 275, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2296774

ABSTRACT

The role of energy transition amidst the energy crisis and how policymakers can drive down emissions while focusing on energy security are critical. Given the geo-political situation, energy crisis volatility, energy shortage and climate change all affect the green transition and the short-term priorities for energy companies and policymakers. Energy security is not an isolated issue but has widespread implications as various sectors depend on energy supply to function properly. Governments around the world are faced with this trilemma, how to balance energy security with energy sustainability while also considering energy affordability. Sustainability has been in focus for about a decade. However, energy security is suddenly becoming one of the most important priorities that policymakers need to consider. Unfortunately, the renewable energy infrastructure is not yet ready to replace the growing volume of energy demand from hydrocarbon, which the world has been dependent on. This means, for now, a surge in energy generation through hydrocarbon to meet the existing energy demand deficit. However, it is important not to lose focus on the challenge of energy sustainability and climate change adaption and mitigation. Where trends like carbon capture and storage;solar, wind, hydro, green hydrogen, etc.;renewable energy infrastructure and integrations, with supply chain and engineering services consideration [in aspect for the growing market in this space] need better attention with regards to investment and full-scale implementation. This paper aims to analyze this 1st energy crisis of green transition with a priori on energy poverty with consideration of major influences and associated impacts. Furthermore, it proposes a specific framework for inclusive investigations, which considers the entire energy ecosystem with consideration of major influences, to enable the policymakers to better drive the green transition. This involves formulating energy policies that are not entirely conservative towards renewable energy sources but instead promote investments in both green and relatively more environmentally benign energy sources compared to high emission hydrocarbons. In this regard, this paper renders exhaustive prospects and recommendations. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd

6.
Computers and Security ; 129, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2295465

ABSTRACT

The energy sector is highly vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to its inherently complex ecosystem of both physical and cyber infrastructure spreading across the globe. Cyber-security breaches in this domain could have a significant impact not only on the global economy but also on citizens' lives. This paper aims at evaluating the security awareness and competency of European Electrical Power and Energy Systems (EPES) organisations' workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian war. A targeted assessment campaign has been designed and conducted from 11th February 2022 until 18th March 2022. During that period, 132 participants, out of the 266 invited employees, participated in the campaign. The collected results were analysed from different perspectives unveiling significant findings regarding information security readiness and resilience of individuals and, consequently, organisations in the European energy sector. Key findings are discussed in detail concluding with various cyber-security recommendations addressing both the emerged vulnerabilities and the need for security culture evolution. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd

7.
Sustainability ; 15(8):6961, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2294826

ABSTRACT

Maintaining our standard of living and keeping the economy running smoothly is heavily reliant on a consistent supply of energy. Renewable energy systems create abundant energy by utilizing resources such as the sun, wind, earth, and plants. The demand for renewable energy is increasing, despite power scarcity, pollution, and climate change posing challenges to long-term development in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has seen significant social and economic growth in recent years. To achieve its 23% renewable energy (RE) target, ASEAN can develop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity. Members of the ASEAN have established regulations and incentives to encourage individuals and businesses to use renewable energy in the future. This paper explores Southeast Asian countries' comprehensive fossil-free energy options, the region's renewable energy potential, current capacity, goals, and energy needs. Through the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016–2025 and the ASEAN Declaration on Renewable Energy, ASEAN is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable development aligning with the Paris Agreement's aim to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Results show that decarbonizing the region's energy system is possible, but current policies and actions must be altered to reach that target level. Further research is necessary to optimize the ASEAN region's renewable resource technical potential and commercial viability with available technology.

8.
International Journal of Sustainable Energy ; 42(1):268-288, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2271191

ABSTRACT

This research aims to identify and analyse the challenges faced by the energy–power supply chain (LNG Power) in Pakistan a developing economy from combined perspectives of supply chain sustainability and resilience in the context of the Triple Bottom Line framework, UN SDGs 7, 13 and energy security. The significance of this research increases many folds as energy-power supply chains have been severely disrupted by events such as COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine war and massive devastation caused by floods in Pakistan. Pakistan meets more than 60% of its energy-power needs from natural gas (including LNG), being less harmful than coal and oil power generation. The industry is in a state of deep crisis as it faces a complex set of challenges. Exploratory research design using a mixed method case study approach was used for the identification and shortlisting of challenges. Later these were ranked using group BWM. Major challenges were lack of strategy, top management commitment, weak compliance to UN SDGs, stalled structural reforms, disasters, lack of supply chain orientation, risk management culture, financial instability, LNG non-availability, demand uncertainty, infrastructure inadequacies and lack of awareness of Industry 4.0. The research enables policy-making besides providing energy practitioners a roadmap to overcome these challenges. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

9.
Energy ; 272, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2270567

ABSTRACT

Post Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian war are significantly impacting energy systems worldwide, faltering investments and threatening to throttle the expansion of primary clean energy technologies, even in the case of a well-structured and managed energy system, such as Norway. This unprecedented crisis requires deeper analyses and well-measured actions from the main actors in Norway's energy and climate sector. Hence, providing and highlighting needed interventions and improvements in the energy system is crucial. This study analyzes demand-side energy in Norway's households, industry, transport, and "other” sectors. LEAP model, a powerful energy system analysis tool, was used to conduct the analysis based on Baseline and Mitigation scenarios. The energy demand by sector and fuel type toward 2050 is forecasted, firstly by considering a set of parameters and key assumptions that impact the security of supply and secondly on the ambitious target of Norway's government in decreasing GHG emissions by 55% in 2030 and 90–95% by the year 2050 compared to 1990 levels. The mitigation scenario aims to diversify the overall national energy system and technological changes based on large-scale renewable energy sources (RES) integration. From the perspective of climate change issues, EV's include an attractive option for deep decarbonization, including other sustainable fuel sources such as H2, biofuel mixed with diesel, the use of excess heat deriving from industry to cover households' heating demand, and integration of large-scale heat pumps driven by RES during off-peak demand is applied. Energy demand projections are uncertain, and the main goal is to show how different scenario projections up to 2050 affect the whole of Norway's energy system, leading to a combined global warming potential (GWP) of around 7.30 MtCO2 in the mitigation scenario from 56.40 MtCO2 tones released in the baseline scenario, by reaching only 77.5% reduction referring to 1990 level. This study's findings show that the net-zero ambitions by the end of 2050 are impossible without the carbon tax application and carbon capture storage (CCS), especially in the oil and gas industry. © 2023 The Authors

10.
22nd International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference: Science and Technologies in Geology, Exploration and Mining, SGEM 2022 ; 22:385-392, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2284285

ABSTRACT

The energy crisis triggered globally in the last quarter of 2021, forced Romania to go through a winter with liberalized electricity and gas prices, a period unprecedented in terms of consumer prices, accentuated by the result of closing energy targets that coal-fired operations as a result of the imposition of EU conditions for the restructuring of the mining and energy sector. The year before, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic, with restrictions imposed, produced a decrease in electricity demand, a decline in coal-fired power consumption, greatly reduced the share of gas in the energy mix, using preferential renewable energy sources. Subsequently, Russian gas prices have risen to record highs and, as a result, coal-fired power generation has returned to the European Union in 2021, although coal became more expensive and emission allowance prices doubled. In the context of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, major price increases are expected worldwide, generating new risks of exposing the economy and new challenges in terms of ensuring Romania's independence and energy security. Against this background of these situations, can Romania still respect the European commitments of the Green Pact, meet these challenges and respond to the needs of the communities affected by the projected programs? The present paper aims at a critical assessment of the current situation of the Romanian coal mining and future trends of using a "clean coal” as a variant to respond to the requirements of the environmental concerns. © 2022 International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference. All rights reserved.

11.
Economies ; 11(3), 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2282705

ABSTRACT

Various methods and tools have been developed to quantify energy supply security;however, there is no ideal framework to measure energy security, as the concept is multifaceted and context dependent. Energy supply security has always been an extremely important issue for European Union (EU) countries due to high import dependency, and recent events linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have made it exceptionally important to reconsider this problem to identify the crucial issues and address contemporary policy needs. This study endeavours to systematise the primary energy security indicators in terms of policy relevance and develop an energy security assessment framework to examine energy import dependency and diversification for the EU in view of recent problems. This study introduces an energy import diversification and security index which enables measurement of a country's energy security level for comparison with other countries and identifies primary areas for improvement. The proposed framework is then applied to a case study of selected EU countries to examine regional differences and identify potential improvements. © 2023 by the authors.

12.
Energy Research & Social Science ; 96, 2023.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2230102

ABSTRACT

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and amidst COVID-19 recovery efforts, the energy crisis has put enormous pressure to policymakers to balance climate action, sustainable development, and management of the impacts of fuel supply disruptions and price shocks. Policy and market responses, such as liquefied natural gas infrastructure investments and use of every available fossil-fuel lever to make up for Russian gas supply cuts, are feared to trigger new lock-ins, jeopardising decarbonisation. This is also the case in Italy, which is highly dependent on Russia-imported gas. Energy models typically used to support such decisions take time to produce meaningful scenarios and, in times of crisis, are largely driven by highly uncertain parameters. This study uses fuzzy cognitive maps to engage with experts in a workshop and elicit their knowledge and perceptions with the aid of a questionnaire, towards simulating the impact of selected strategies and important uncertainties on the three pillars of Italy's progress to electricity-sector sustainability: decarbonisation, affordability, and reliability. In a framework of deliberation and simulation, experts displayed strong preference for renewable energy, compared to new gas infrastructure. Renewables were notably deemed to have positive impacts across all three sustaina-biltiy dimensions and were found more robust against uncertainties, such as regulatory and political instability, which was highlighted as the biggest risk. Critically, despite their expectedly positive impact, demand-side transformations including demand reductions and broader behavioural shifts-a core component of the EU's current approach-may prove inadequate, should large system pressures from negative socio-and techno-economic developments persist.

13.
Ideology and Politics Journal ; - (3-19):109-124, 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2218160

ABSTRACT

Using the elements of the ‘small state' theory, the article examines interconnections between Qatar's foreign policy priorities and existing challenges to Doha's presence at the natural gas markets caused by the impact of the US shale revolution, beginning of the global energy transition, and COVID-19 pandemic. The study argues that Qatar's previous efforts aimed at the development of its export-oriented LNG industry allowed the Emirate to fund and pursue a foreign policy strategy that was uncommon for a small state. Since the late-1990es, Qatar's diplomacy was based on the principles of complexed risks hedging that allowed maintaining the substantial degree of independence rather than more typical "bandwagoning” or "balancing” used by other "small states”. During the last two decades, Doha was also more oriented towards interaction with players outside of the Gulf Cooperation Council. At the same time, the ongoing transformations of the hydrocarbon markets created a threat to the sustainability of the main financial source that is finding the current model of Qatar's foreign policy behavior—LNG exports. Under these circumstances, the country must fight for its place in the market, ensuring sustainable demand for its main export product. This, in turn, forces Doha to re-adjust its relations with both LNG consumers and its main market rivals to maintain the sufficient inflow of financial revenues from energy exports that helps Qatar to pursue a more active and independent foreign policy than the so-called "small states” can traditionally afford. However, it was the same experience of the risk hedging strategy traditionally applied by the Qatari leadership that allowed Doha to develop the set of response measures to emerging challenges. © 2021 Foundation for Good Politics

14.
Energy and Environment ; 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2194519

ABSTRACT

During the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, the oil industry has been pivotal in influencing all countries' geopolitical, economic, and human development strategies. Until recently, the debate was about peak oil and what would happen after oil finished. However, due to technological advances and hydraulic fracturing, shale oil formations have become economically viable due to the United States' desire to achieve energy security to make a qualitative shift in the oil industry and the geopolitics of oil. Therefore, this paper deals with an economic model that illustrates the impact of oil price fluctuations to the shale oil and gas companies by analyzing the main determinants of continuity of shale oil and gas companies in production if global oil prices decline or rise. In addition, the study will investigate the effects of OPEC+ policy and Covid-19 on the future of shale oil industry. The study will discuss some future scenarios for global energy trends and predict what the shale industry will look like in the future. The study concluded the shale industry faces an internal destructive process (within the industry itself) and external (Renewable energy, OPEC and Covid-19). The stability of oil prices is a critical factor that promotes the shale industry's recovery. However, shale industry is expected to continue with low productivity growth rates and continuing government support for it. © The Author(s) 2022.

15.
Energy Research & Social Science ; 96:102934, 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2165286

ABSTRACT

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and amidst COVID-19 recovery efforts, the energy crisis has put enormous pressure to policymakers to balance climate action, sustainable development, and management of the impacts of fuel supply disruptions and price shocks. Policy and market responses, such as liquefied natural gas infrastructure investments and use of every available fossil-fuel lever to make up for Russian gas supply cuts, are feared to trigger new lock-ins, jeopardising decarbonisation. This is also the case in Italy, which is highly dependent on Russia-imported gas. Energy models typically used to support such decisions take time to produce meaningful scenarios and, in times of crisis, are largely driven by highly uncertain parameters. This study uses fuzzy cognitive maps to engage with experts in a workshop and elicit their knowledge and perceptions with the aid of a questionnaire, towards simulating the impact of selected strategies and important uncertainties on the three pillars of Italy's progress to electricity-sector sustainability: decarbonisation, affordability, and reliability. In a framework of deliberation and simulation, experts displayed strong preference for renewable energy, compared to new gas infrastructure. Renewables were notably deemed to have positive impacts across all three sustainabiltiy dimensions and were found more robust against uncertainties, such as regulatory and political instability, which was highlighted as the biggest risk. Critically, despite their expectedly positive impact, demand-side transformations including demand reductions and broader behavioural shifts—a core component of the EU's current approach—may prove inadequate, should large system pressures from negative socio- and techno-economic developments persist.

16.
Russian Journal of Economics ; 8(3):207-233, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2156181

ABSTRACT

In 2020 the energy transition path was distorted by the COVID-19 pandemic which caused a sharp economic decline and a fast global recovery in 2021. Unlike that period, the years between 2001 and 2019 illustrated a different type of energy evolution for developed and developing countries regarding primary energy consumption. During this period the composition of energy balances of these two major groups demonstrated dramatic disparity, notably marked by the high share of coal in developing countries. The shock of 2020 led to a belief in expediting the transition to green energy, but in 2021 the economic recovery revived demand for oil and coal, dashing hopes for the growing renewable energy sources sector in the European Union that year. The return of coal, however, to the EU energy sector and stable demand for motor fuel globally led to the restoration of the GHG emission growth against the backdrop of the climate policy implementation failure. The current energy transition is denoted by features such as the flat oil demand in developed countries, the flat global demand for motor gasoline and the growing demand for diesel. The econometrics of demand for two motor oil products are quite opposite. For gasoline we have almost all hypotheses met: the negative influence of climate policy and oil prices, strong effect of dummies for shock of 2020 and 2021, and naturally 0.3 coefficient at GDP growth rate. Nevertheless, for diesel everything is exactly the opposite — only 0,4 coefficient at GDP and practically nothing else. This effect shows the strong role and trend for cargo use of diesel fueled trucks in the global economy. The high income of oil and gas majors in 2021 did not secure the investment upturn. A mature oil industry receives substantial profits for its investors, supplying dividends, and buying back debts without enlarging production capacities. At this point climate policy expectations of phasing out fossil fuels in the foreseeable future operated as a braking mechanism against reinvesting oil incomes. Moreover, at this junction we can observe governments’ limited capacity to pursue policies toward multiple objectives simultaneously: modest energy prices, energy transition and securing the sufficient capital formation for energy. The continued fusion of the economic upturn and energy transition will be dependent on demand and supply matching in the oil markets. It is also possible that the sanctions policies of 2022 may aggravate the situation, triggering high prices and uncertainties. © 2022 Non-profit partnership “Voprosy Ekonomiki”.

17.
Canadian Foreign Policy Journal ; : 1-6, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2107026

ABSTRACT

For most of the last 75 years, Canada has been a supplier of fossil fuels to the world. More recently, growing concerns about the impacts of climate change have created challenges to a continuation of this role. Developments such as the COVID pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have made even more evident the tensions confronting energy systems around the world. The situation in Canada is no exception. Within this context, the contributors to this Special Issue explore a range of issues linked to energy, security, and the climate as well as factors that connect these three factors. The future role - if any - of fossil fuels in meeting Canadian and world energy needs is addressed as are the possible implications of a growing reliance on renewable forms of energy. The authors present a range of assessments and perspectives, anchored in an appreciation of the situation in Canada, our country's evolving role in global energy relations, and its participation in international efforts to address climate change.

18.
Energy Strategy Reviews ; 44:100973, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2068971

ABSTRACT

In the 21st century, environmental goals such as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix became the main priority in energy policy making. At the same time, the goal of maintaining energy independence has been somewhat marginalized and has only regained importance in the context of the crisis caused by such events as the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Both circumstances pose a significant problem for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe;therefore, this article presents an assessment of the effectiveness of energy policy (EoEP) implementation in 11 countries of the region. The evaluation process uses multi-criteria analysis using the following conditions: (1) environmental;(2) energy resource;(3) economic and (4) energy security. The research was conducted in a long-term perspective of 21 years. The results show a low level of implementation of environmental objectives in the analyzed countries and an average advancement of energy transformation in most of them. The balance sheets of the CEE countries surveyed are still dominated by non-renewable energy sources (share of 65–97%). This dominance is not conducive to maintaining energy security because many of the countries studied do not have their own sources of coal, gas or oil (resource sufficiency less than 1/3 in 8 of 11 countries studied). The observed trends testify to the low EoEP goals, both in the environmental and energy security areas. The results suggest that the most effective path of energy transformation is the diversification of energy mixes achieved through the abandonment of non-renewable resources and their simultaneous replacement by hydropower and nuclear energy.

19.
Energies ; 15(18), 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2065777

ABSTRACT

In recent years, due to the rise in energy prices and the impact of COVID-19, energy shortages have led to unsafe power supply environments. High emissions industries which account for more than 58% of the carbon emissions of Guangdong Province have played an important role in achieving the carbon peak goal, alleviating social energy shortage and promoting economic growth. Controlling high emissions industries will help to adjust the industrial structure and increase renewable energy investment. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the policies of energy security and the investments of high emission industries. This paper builds the ICEEH-GD (comprehensive assessment model of climate, economy, environment and health of Guangdong Province) model, designs the Energy Security scenario (ES), the Restrict High Carbon Emission Sector scenario (RHS) and the Comprehensive Policy scenario (CP), and studies the impact of limiting high emissions industries and renewable energy policies on the transformation of investment structure, macro-economy and society. The results show that under the Energy Security scenario (ES), carbon emissions will peak in 2029, with a peak of 681 million tons. Under the condition of ensuring energy security, the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation will remain unchanged from 2025 to 2035. Under the Restrict High Carbon Emission Sector scenario (RHS), the GDP will increase by 8 billion yuan compared with the ES scenario by 2035. At the same time, it can promote the whole society to increase 10,500 employment opportunities, and more investment will flow to the low emissions industries. In the Comprehensive Policy scenario (CP), although the GDP loss will reach 33 billion yuan by 2035 compared with the Energy Security scenario (ES), the transportation and service industries will participate in carbon trading by optimizing the distribution of carbon restrictions in the whole society, which will reduce the carbon cost of the whole society by more than 48%, and promote the employment growth of 104,000 people through industrial structure optimization. Therefore, the power sector should increase investment in renewable energy to ensure energy security, limit the new production capacity of high emissions industries such as cement, steel and ceramics, and increase the green transition and efficiency improvement of existing high emissions industries. © 2022 by the authors.

20.
Journal of Cleaner Production ; 375:134061, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2031428

ABSTRACT

This paper refers to the current energy situation in the European Union (EU) countries with a particular focus on energy produced from renewable energy sources and coal – sources that provide opportunities for balancing the energy of the region. The strengths and weaknesses of coal mining in Poland were also identified, along with its opportunities and threats (SWOT analysis). Innovative and sustainable development based on the Triple Helix Model (THM), as well as the Open innovation (OI) concept and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) principles were identified as opportunities for its sustainable development. The combination of these solutions should enable sustainable development of the industry, preserving its economic and social importance and reducing its negative impact on the environment. The use of new clean technologies in the operation and combustion of coal should reduce emissions of harmful substances into the environment. Intensive and government-supported cooperation between the scientific and research community and industry should significantly facilitate these processes. Another aspect important for the changes to be introduced is the social factor, for which the current situation represents an opportunity to preserve jobs in the mining industry, but also a challenge for its sustainable development. These seemingly mutually exclusive elements should form the basis of a new opening for Polish and European mining as an innovative industry based on knowledge and preserving the basic principles of ESG. The paper also outlines the most significant challenges facing the Polish mining industry on its way to innovative development. The article provides a new and relevant to the current reality perspective on the Polish mining industry in the context of the entire EU, for which the current geopolitical situation forces the necessity of setting a new direction of development. The geopolitical changes that have recently taken place in the global economy such as the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic and the armed conflict within Ukraine have caused very great turbulence in the energy market. Enthusiasm and uncritical adoption of green concepts in the EU has caused, along with the reduction of gas and coal imports from Russia, turbulence in the energy market. This situation has created a great opportunity for the development of the mining industry in Poland, which has not yet managed, following the example of other EU countries, to extinguish the industry. In order to take advantage of this opportunity and obtain a permanent place in the energy mix in the EU, it is necessary to rapidly develop the mining industry in a sustainable manner based on innovative solutions.

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